The Occurrence Gap: How Social Inflation Is Splitting the GL Market

Published 2026-07-18. Scott Huisingha, Senior Actuarial Solutions Consultant, Effective AI.

A 10-year study of 36,994 SERFF general-liability rate filings across 50 states and 237 carrier groups showing occurrence GL indicating +21.9% rate need vs +4.0% for claims-made — a 17.9-point spread that blended GL benchmarks obscure.

Occurrence vs Claims-Made GL Rate Filings, 2016–2025. Sources: NAIC 2024 Annual Statements; SERFF rate impact data (TOI 17.1 + 17.2), 2016–2025; ATRI (2020); U.S. Chamber ILR (2024).